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I t had been a good few weeks for Trevor and Susan Parry. They caught up with their grandchildren, whom they had not hugged for months during the spring and summer lockdown, and took a brief holiday on the coast at Porthcawl, south Wales. It was inevitable. It was hard not seeing our grandchildren properly.
They could only knock on the window and wave at us. That hurt. You get so depressed. The Welsh government has ordered people to wear masks. There are areas of severe deprivation in the county borough and many people have ificant health problems. At a press conference in Cardiff, the Welsh health minister, Vaughan Gething, said the Covid rate in Caerphilly had risen to Community testing was starting in the nearby Rhondda Valley.
Avril Thomas, 69, a retired independent social worker, said the lockdown was no surprise. I think people have been confused over what they can and cannot do. In recent days the UK has seen a sudden sharp increase in Covid infection s, leading to fears that a second wave of cases is beginning.
Epidemics of infectious diseases behave in different ways but the influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people is regarded as a key example of a pandemic that occurred in multiple waves, with the latter more severe than the first.
It has been replicated — albeit more mildly — in subsequent flu pandemics. Until now that had been what was expected from Covid How and why multiple-wave outbreaks occur, and how subsequent waves of infection can be prevented, has become a staple of epidemiological modelling studies and pandemic preparation, which have looked at everything from social behaviour and health policy to vaccination and the buildup of community immunity, also known as herd immunity.
This is being watched very carefully. Without a vaccine, and with no widespread immunity to the new disease, one alarm is being sounded by the experience of Singapore, which has seen a sudden resurgence in infections despite being lauded for its early handling of the outbreak. Although Singapore instituted a strong contact tracing system for its general population, the disease re-emerged in cramped dormitory accommodation used by thousands of foreign workers with inadequate hygiene facilities and shared canteens. In JuneBeijing suffered from a new cluster of coronavirus cases which caused authorities to re-implement restrictions that China had ly been able to lift.
In the UK, the city of Leicester was unable to come out of lockdown because of the development of a new spike of coronavirus cases. Clusters also emerged in Melbourne, requiring a re-imposition of lockdown conditions. Conventional wisdom among scientists suggests second waves of resistant infections occur after the capacity for treatment and isolation becomes exhausted. In this case the concern is that the social and political consensus supporting lockdowns is being overtaken by public frustration and the urgent need to reopen economies. The overall threat declines when susceptibility of the population to the disease falls below a certain threshold or when widespread vaccination becomes available.
In general terms the ratio of susceptible and immune individuals in a population at the end of one wave determines the potential magnitude of a subsequent wave. The worry is that with a vaccine still many months awayand the real rate of infection only being guessed at, populations worldwide remain highly vulnerable to both resurgence and subsequent waves.
So many parts of the community expect to be affected. Will Rees, the volunteer director of Bedwas rugby club, said the club had been hit this year by flooding and Covid The club was struggling because of a lack of income, it feared losing potential young players, and worried about older members missing their friends.
Businesses are worried about the impact of the new lockdown. The town is not the same place it was this time last year. Jackie Stephens, 56, who has learning disabilities, said that since February she had not been able to go to a day centre she liked to visit. Rhydian Birkinshaw, 25, an operations manager at the Wales Millennium Centre, in Cardiff, who is on furlough, suggested it was not fair to put the blame entirely on young people.
Police had to break up a rave recently. Going to a rave is not on.
This article is more than 1 year old. Steven Morris. Tue 8 Sep Quick Guide Will there be a second wave of coronavirus? Show In recent days the UK has seen a sudden sharp increase in Covid infection s, leading to fears that a second wave of cases is beginning. Is there evidence of coronavirus coming back in a second wave?
What are experts worried about? Reuse this content.Caerphilly sex date
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Fear and confusion in Caerphilly as first local lockdown in Wales begins